This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee which is going to be the previous UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We are back to having smaller prize pools for this occasion but there’s still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entrance with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a nice high prize are always my favourite competitions to pursue so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will find a good amount of play in cash games. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is nearly always the best struggle to enter cash games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the most important event here too, but I think Kevin Lee is your must drama of both. He’s a -335 favored and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score tremendously and according to Vegas he’s a 77% probability of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even possess a high ground, but he probably has the maximum ceiling onto the card too. This is where I will be starting my money lineup this week.
GPP drama of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we saw a lot of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is almost a PK fight on the betting odds now. Usually when that happens we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I believe Gordon’s possession will go down because of this and that’s what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He does not even require a finish to score 100+ points and that’s the reason why I like him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he can win then he should score well.
Underdog drama of this week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is only +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I adore the value we are getting there, and I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I really do expect him to become one of the most popular underdogs on the card, but it’s chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be so not just would he have the win, but he’d score highly as well. I think if he can win this fight he then ends up on the 1st place lineup and he is my favourite underdog of this week for that reason.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose because I think he loses, I am really picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I’m fading him because he’s $9.3k and together with his fighting style I don’t see him becoming over 10x that wages. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus far in his profession and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. When he scores around that region again in this particular fight, then pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP because the other men because $9k stove likely score higher and likely even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my personal approaches & recommendations, and also my pick outlook for every single fight then you can discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the previous 7 weeks!)
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